Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 181.689889 220.771850 269.338183 335.283162 424.351989 5.433348e+02 7.194706e+02
2025-03-30 136.617999 181.173894 243.771616 341.961624 499.947113 7.602743e+02 1.263000e+03
2025-04-06 113.714439 160.192078 231.446592 356.075823 587.144636 1.045594e+03 2.200263e+03
2025-04-13 95.190280 139.745297 212.342307 349.807941 634.085331 1.292119e+03 3.415040e+03
2025-04-20 87.850846 134.542765 215.617817 382.936055 774.888003 1.871716e+03 6.882350e+03
2025-04-27 81.335271 129.058292 216.543776 411.383516 924.104603 2.663285e+03 1.472850e+04
2025-05-04 75.278853 123.055750 214.786509 433.258514 1073.459656 3.708722e+03 3.430806e+04
2025-05-11 69.541642 116.537626 210.371895 447.299491 1213.036493 5.030728e+03 9.034145e+04
2025-05-18 63.958562 109.367465 202.997063 451.326167 1325.844917 6.556543e+03 2.793916e+05
2025-05-25 58.391024 101.401046 192.314142 442.958704 1389.547633 8.031514e+03 1.034681e+06
2025-06-01 53.308403 93.740536 180.954736 429.249551 1424.593526 9.502426e+03 6.367750e+06
2025-06-08 48.865820 86.856595 170.252051 414.445445 1447.159752 1.107585e+04 3.189556e+08
2025-06-15 47.976896 87.438300 177.704367 460.494431 1827.853481 2.062570e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 45.184379 83.590789 173.658261 467.888376 2019.969068 3.057850e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 43.253663 81.381066 173.362880 488.808808 2337.701106 5.348432e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 40.344093 76.627315 165.569310 479.212059 2436.455283 7.402825e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 39.809875 77.224100 172.296657 529.736602 3123.437986 2.219624e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 38.962324 76.972760 176.650765 573.642553 3902.748841 9.115829e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 37.827924 75.888727 178.406250 607.716089 4722.795375 7.187212e+06 NaN
2025-08-03 36.451817 74.049500 177.571849 629.725685 5508.390787 7.568962e+08 NaN
2025-08-10 34.831658 71.426591 173.877051 636.057294 6120.950272 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 32.948792 67.959119 166.989991 622.909915 6378.503522 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 31.062029 64.322587 159.072465 601.451528 6435.564909 NaN NaN